Money Simplified

The Weekly Market Update

24 October to 30 October 2026

This week was about patience, and how little of it is left. Investors ran out of patience with the AI bill, the Federal Reserve is running out of patience with inflation, and Britain’s new Chancellor asked households for a little more of it.

Alphabet, the owner of Google, lost about $500 billion of value in a single day, the worst day in its history, after it spent more cash than it made for the second quarter in a row. Amazon then revealed it had spent $77 billion in three months, and Intel had its worst day since 1974. By Friday the S&P 500 had its worst day since June and the Nasdaq its worst month since March last year. The Fed held interest rates, but two of its officials voted to raise them, and the market now expects a rise in December.

Elsewhere, Israel’s election ended in stalemate, a tanker was disabled in the Strait of Hormuz, hackers stole $6.3 billion from the world’s biggest crypto exchange, and John Healey’s first Budget gave with one hand and took, gently, with the other.

Markets at a glance

Figures as at the close on Friday 30 October 2026. The Week column is measured from the previous Friday’s close, 23 October 2026. Yearly changes are the 12 month change from Trading Economics, except the mortgage rate, which is Freddie Mac’s year-ago figure. For interest rates and bond yields, both change columns are shown in percentage points, so a move from 4.99% to 4.93% is −0.06 points. A bond yield is simply the yearly return a lender earns for lending money to the government. The oil price moved this week from the December delivery contract to the January one, which trades a few dollars lower, so part of oil’s weekly fall is that switch rather than a change in the market. Green means the number went up, red means it went down, whatever that means for your wallet.

01 · Markets & Rates

The Fed held rates, two officials voted to raise them, and shares had their worst day since June

What happened. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, left its interest rate at 3.75% to 4%, as expected. The surprise was the vote. Two of the twelve officials, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, wanted a rise straight away, after a unanimous vote in September. Chair Kevin Warsh said the economy is “expanding at a strong pace”, that inflation “remains elevated” and that the Fed “will deliver price stability”. Asked whether the midterm elections six days later played a part, he said he had not heard “an utterance about politics”. Thursday’s figures explained the dissent. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation rose 0.5% in September alone, its biggest monthly jump since March, to 3.6% for the year. The version that strips out food and energy is 3.1%, against a 2% target. The economy grew at a 3.4% annual pace in the third quarter, faster than expected, and new claims for unemployment benefit fell to 194,000. On Friday two more Fed officials, Alberto Musalem and Tom Barkin, said rates need to go higher. Markets now put the chance of a rise at the 9 December meeting at roughly three in four. Shares did not take it well, though the heavier blow came from the technology results in the next story. On Friday the S&P 500, the index of 500 big American companies, fell 1.8% to 7,580, its worst day since June. It lost 0.6% over the week, its third weekly fall in a row. The technology-heavy Nasdaq fell 2.9% on Friday and lost more than 5% in October, its worst month since March last year. Government bonds were the safe place to be. The interest rate on 10 year American debt, which falls when more people buy the bonds, ended the week at 4.93%, down from 4.99%. Mortgages followed: Freddie Mac’s average 30 year rate fell to 7.24% from 7.32%, its lowest this month, though still more than a point above a year ago.

Why it matters. The Fed is in an uncomfortable position and said so. Growth is strong, unemployment claims are at their lowest in a generation, and inflation is still rising. On that evidence, rates should go up, and two voters said they should go up now. What held the majority back is the stock market’s nervousness about AI spending and an election next week. Warsh insists politics played no role, but raising rates six days before a vote would have been a bold move. For ordinary savers and borrowers the direction is clear enough. American rates are more likely to rise than fall over the coming months, which keeps the dollar firm and keeps pressure on borrowing costs around the world. The odd part is the bond market, where rates fell even as the Fed turned tougher. That is fear, not relief. When shares drop sharply, money hides in government bonds, and this week it had plenty to hide from.

What to watch. The American midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November, which decide who controls Congress for the second half of Trump’s term. October’s jobs figures, due next week. The Fed’s meeting on Wednesday 9 December, where a rise is now the expected outcome. And Apple’s results on Monday 2 November, followed by Nvidia’s later in the month.

02 · AI & Technology

Alphabet lost $500 billion in a day, Amazon spent $77 billion in a quarter, and Intel had its worst day since 1974

What happened. The three biggest AI spenders left standing all reported this week, and the market’s patience snapped. On Wednesday evening Alphabet said sales rose 25% to $127.6 billion and its cloud computing business more than doubled to $30.7 billion. Then came the costs. It spent $51.4 billion on data centres and chips in three months, more than twice the amount a year earlier, and for the second quarter running it spent more cash than its business generated, a shortfall of $9.1 billion. Google search, the business that pays for everything, grew 12% but missed forecasts, and an $8.7 billion paper loss on stakes in other companies, including SpaceX, dragged profit per share well below expectations. Alphabet kept its plan to spend up to $205 billion this year and said 2027 would bring a “significant increase”. To pay for it, the company raised $28.7 billion of debt and sold $12.4 billion of new shares in the quarter. On Thursday the shares closed down 12.6%, the worst day in the company’s history, wiping about $500 billion off its value. Only Nvidia has ever lost more in a day. Kathleen Brooks of the broker XTB summed up the mood: two quarters of negative cash flow “is unacceptable for investors”. Microsoft reported the same evening and showed the other side of the coin. Sales rose 19% to $92.3 billion, its Azure cloud business grew 48%, it spent less than expected and it still generated $18.6 billion of spare cash. Its shares edged higher on Thursday while almost everything around them fell. Amazon followed on Thursday night. Its cloud arm grew 39%, the fastest in nearly five years, but it spent $77.3 billion in the quarter, up from about $35 billion a year earlier, and over the past year its business has consumed $42.4 billion more cash than it produced, a record. The shares fell 7% before the market opened and closed down 1.4%. Then Intel, the chip maker, forecast sales of $15 billion to $16 billion for the final quarter against the $17.1 billion analysts expected, blaming weak demand for personal computers. Its shares closed down 28.6% on Friday, their worst day since 1974, and the main chip index fell 7.2%. AMD lost 10.9% and Nvidia 4.2%.

Why it matters. Two weeks ago the worry was about AI companies that borrow. Last week it reached Meta, which pays from its own pocket. This week it reached Alphabet and Amazon, which have the deepest pockets of all, and the market’s verdict was that even they can no longer fund the build-out from profits. Alphabet is now borrowing and issuing shares to pay for data centres. That is a very different company from the one that used to buy back its own stock every quarter. Microsoft’s result shows what investors want: fast growth that still leaves cash in the till. Alphabet and Amazon are betting that today’s spending becomes tomorrow’s cloud revenue, and their cloud businesses are indeed growing at extraordinary rates. The question is simply how long shareholders will wait. Intel’s collapse is a different story with the same moral. The money is flowing to AI chips and data centre equipment, not to ordinary PCs, and a company caught on the wrong side of that is being punished without mercy. If you hold a pension or an index fund, you own all of these companies. A bad week for them is a bad week for you, even though nothing has changed in the real economy.

What to watch. Apple’s results on Monday 2 November. Apple has spent far less on AI than its rivals, so it is the test of whether the market now rewards restraint. Nvidia’s results in November, which will show whether the buyers of all these chips are still buying. And the chip index, which has become the thermometer for the whole AI trade.

03 · Geopolitics & Energy

Israel’s election ended in deadlock, a tanker was mined in Hormuz, and oil finished a fourth month higher

What happened. Israel voted on Tuesday with the highest turnout in decades, 77.9%, and produced no winner. With every vote counted, Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 of the 120 seats, the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot has 48, and parties representing Israel’s Arab citizens have a record 19, up from 10. Sixty-one seats are needed to govern. Neither side can get there without the Arab parties or defectors, and most parties have ruled out working with the Arab parties. The new parliament is sworn in on 10 November and coalition talks could run for more than two months. President Isaac Herzog said the country must do everything possible “to avoid another round of elections”. In the Gulf, the war with Iran entered its ninth month with a new tactic. On Thursday night a small boat attached two explosive devices to a tanker about 25 nautical miles from Khasab, on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, setting its engine room on fire. The crew were safe. Reuters named the ship as the Panama-flagged Louise 1 and called it the first successful attack of its kind since the war began in February. Iran claimed four tankers had hit mines after using an “unauthorised” route; the American military said the main shipping lanes are clear and called earlier mine reports false. Diplomacy and threats ran side by side. Vice President JD Vance sent Iran a letter through Qatar proposing a framework for talks, which Iran acknowledged but has not answered. President Trump said he had not directed the outreach, and said the war “will end soon”. The Wall Street Journal reported that the region’s top American commander has briefed him on military options, and the White House has repeatedly said there will be no strikes before Tuesday’s midterm elections. Yemen’s Houthis claimed six more attacks on Saudi airports and oil sites, and Saudi Arabia said it shot down a drone heading towards the Mecca region. Brent crude, the main international oil price, closed on Friday at $113.43 a barrel, up 2.4% on the day. It has risen more than 10% in October, its fourth monthly gain in a row. Exxon and Chevron both beat profit forecasts and touched record highs.

Why it matters. Israel’s deadlock matters well beyond Israel. Netanyahu has been the most forceful voice for striking Iran, and a weakened or departing prime minister changes the calculation for Washington, Tehran and the oil market alike. For now, nobody knows who will be in charge, which is its own kind of risk. The Hormuz attack is small in scale and large in meaning. Mines and limpet charges are cheap, deniable and hard to clear, and they raise insurance costs for every ship that passes. Oil exports through the strait were running about 40% below pre-war levels earlier this month, according to the data firm Kpler. Expensive oil is why inflation is 3.6% in America and 3.5% in Britain, why the Fed is leaning towards raising rates and why the Bank of England is expected to raise them next week. Every month that Brent stays above $100, those figures stay stubborn. The market is watching the calendar. Trump has promised no strikes before the midterms. The question is what happens the week after.

What to watch. The American midterms on Tuesday 3 November and any military move in the days that follow. Israel’s official results go to President Herzog on Wednesday 4 November, and the Knesset is sworn in on 10 November. Whether Iran replies to the Vance letter. Shipping incidents and insurance rates in Hormuz. And whether Brent breaks above its $116.72 high from last week.

04 · Business & Crypto

Hackers stole $6.3 billion from Binance, the biggest crypto theft in history

What happened. Late on Thursday, Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, lost about $6.3 billion to hackers. That is more than four times the previous record, the $1.5 billion taken from the exchange Bybit last year, and more than double everything stolen from the entire crypto industry in 2025. The attackers drained Binance wallets on ten different blockchains and moved most of the money in about 20 minutes, according to the investigation firm TRM Labs. Binance’s early finding is that a hacked laptop belonging to one of its engineers gave the attackers their way in. TRM Labs says with high confidence, and Chainalysis agrees, that the thieves were North Korea’s state hacking unit, the same group blamed for the Bybit theft. Binance halted withdrawals, said “user funds remain safe” and promised to cover “all hacking losses” from its own reserves. It expects withdrawals to resume within 48 hours. About $3 billion of the stolen money has been frozen so far, mostly by the companies behind the Tether and USDC stablecoins, which can lock tokens in flight. The rest is being chased. Bitcoin fell about 5% on the news to below $77,000, its lowest since mid-September, and ended the week at $76,816, down 4.8%. Ether hit a two-month low. Shares in companies tied to crypto were hit harder: Coinbase closed down 10.6% on Friday, Strategy, the company that holds bitcoin as its main asset, fell 7.8%, and Robinhood lost 7.2%.

Why it matters. For anyone who holds crypto, this is the oldest lesson in the business restated at record scale. An exchange is a company. When you leave coins there, you are trusting that company’s security, and as one Australian academic put it this week, assets at an exchange “are only as safe as the exchange itself”. Binance can afford this. It has about $160 billion of customer assets and a reserve fund built for exactly this moment, and its promise to make customers whole is why bitcoin fell 5% rather than 25%. A smaller exchange would simply have gone under. The North Korea angle matters too. Stolen crypto is a major source of hard currency for a sanctioned state, and $6.3 billion in one night dwarfs anything it has managed before. Expect governments to use this to push harder for rules on exchanges. Bitcoin has now lost about 30% in a year while gold, its supposed rival as a store of value, is down 3%. Neither has been much of a refuge in 2026.

What to watch. Whether Binance reopens withdrawals on schedule and publishes its promised technical report. How much of the $6.3 billion is recovered. Whether regulators in America, Europe and Asia respond with new rules on exchange security. And whether bitcoin steadies after its lowest close since September.

05 · Personal Finance

Healey’s first Budget: £100 off energy bills, the cash ISA saved, and a rate rise still coming on Thursday

What happened. Chancellor John Healey’s first Budget on Wednesday was deliberately low-key. He called it “breathing space now, fresh hope for the future”. The help is aimed at bills. About 20 million households in council tax bands A to D will get a one-off £100 energy payment, costing £2.6 billion. The standing charge on gas bills is to be scrapped from next year, with the Treasury saying 60% of households will save about £45 a year. The VAT cut on electricity is extended to July, worth about £50 off the annual price cap, and fuel duty is frozen for a sixteenth year, cancelling a planned January rise. Savers got a reprieve. The planned cut in the cash ISA allowance from £20,000 to £12,000 is scrapped, so you can still shelter £20,000 a year in cash tax-free. A new First Time Buyer ISA will replace the Lifetime ISA, and the old penalty for using Lifetime ISA money on homes over £450,000 is gone. The minimum wage rises 3.9% in April to £13.21 an hour, and the 3.9% state pension rise already announced for April stands. The bills were sent elsewhere. Tax on savings interest and rental income rises by 2 points from April 2027, to 24%, 44% and 49% depending on your tax band, raising about £500 million from each. Banks pay a surcharge of 6% on profits instead of 3% for 15 months. Gambling machine duty rises. The rumoured cut in the mansion tax threshold was rejected, and there are no rises on wages or dividends. Tax rises total about £6.5 billion by 2031, small by recent standards. The official forecasters expect the economy to grow 1.2% this year and 1% next, and inflation to average 3.4% next year rather than the 2% they expected in March. The government’s spare room against its own borrowing rules has shrunk to £15 billion from £24 billion, and interest on the national debt is £14 billion higher this year than planned. The bond market barely moved, which these days counts as a success. The interest rate on 10 year government debt ended the week at 5.29%, its lowest since late September.

Why it matters. The Budget is best read as a holding operation. The Chancellor had very little room and used it on the thing voters feel most, which is energy bills. The £100 payment and the standing charge change are real money for lower-income households, but they do not change the underlying picture: inflation is 3.5% and forecast to stay above 3% through next year, mainly because of oil. If you have savings or a buy-to-let, the 2 point rise in tax on that income from 2027 is the one line that costs you. Combined with an ISA allowance that survives intact, the message is plain: money inside an ISA is becoming more valuable relative to money outside one. The bigger event for most households is on Thursday. Markets are almost certain the Bank of England will raise its rate from 3.75% to 4%, with more rises expected in February and July. Anyone on a tracker or variable mortgage pays more the following month. Fixed rates have largely priced it in, but people coming off cheap deals from 2021 and 2022 face a jump either way. Savers should check their rate. The average savings account still pays a little above inflation, and that gap will widen slightly if the Bank moves.

What to watch. The Bank of England on Thursday 5 November, and what it says about how many more rises are coming. October’s inflation figure on Wednesday 18 November, which will carry this month’s oil price. The detail on the First Time Buyer ISA and the standing charge changes, due from the Treasury and Ofgem over the coming months.

Also worth knowing

Gold fell to a one-year low. It closed the week at $3,876 an ounce, down 3.0%, and lost more than 7% in October. Rising odds of American rate rises make an asset that pays no interest less appealing, and some investors sold gold to cover losses on technology shares. It is now 3.2% lower than a year ago.

Software and social media had a brutal week too. ServiceNow fell 27% on Thursday, its worst day on record, after a cautious forecast. Reddit lost 29% on Friday. Investors are asking which internet businesses AI helps and which it hollows out.

The oil companies are the winners. Exxon and Chevron both beat profit forecasts and touched record share prices on Friday. American energy shares rose 1.9% on a day the market fell 1.8%. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, held its rate at 1.25% and raised its inflation forecast.

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This newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Figures as at the close on 30 October 2026.