Let me paint you a picture. It's Thursday evening. 8pm BST..

Start with this.

$80 billion.

That's the total value of goods and services generated globally because 48 countries kick a ball around for 39 days.

To put that in perspective that's more than the entire annual GDP of countries like Croatia, Ecuador or Kenya. From one football tournament.

Zoom in on the US alone:

Hotel rooms in Dallas, LA and New York are going for prices that would make your eyes water. The average Airbnb host in a US host city is expected to pocket $4,000 during the tournament alone. And Mexico arguably the biggest winner of all.

The $3 billion boost represents up to 0.5% of Mexico's entire GDP.
In a country more reliant on tourism and services than its northern neighbours, that's genuinely life-changing at a national level.
Extraordinary numbers.

But here's the thing.

I promised you plain English.
So here it is.

Nearly 80% of hotels across US host cities report bookings running below their initial forecasts. Eighty percent.
How is that possible for the biggest sporting event in history?

Three reasons.

Think about that for a moment.

Somewhere right now, a fan is sitting with a World Cup ticket in their hand their country qualified, they saved up, they bought the ticket and they cannot get a visa to watch their own team play. That's not hypothetical. That's happening to fans from dozens of countries right now.

The honest verdict?

The economic boom will happen. Just probably at 60-70% of what was promised.

Here's what I keep coming back to.

None of the above makes Thursday
any less exciting.

Because for all the politics and
economics and controversy — when
that whistle blows at the Azteca, something remarkable happens. Cape Verde. A small island nation off the west coast of Africa with a population of 500,000 people. They've never been to a World Cup.

On Thursday, they play their first ever match. Their players most of whom grew up watching this tournament on tiny screens dreaming of this moment will walk out onto that pitch. Same for Curaçao. Jordan. Uzbekistan.
Four nations making their World Cup debut. Four sets of players who have waited their entire lives for this. No economist can put a number on what that moment means.

The good news for UK viewers:

Every single England match is on BBC or ITV. Free. No paywall. No subscription needed.

Kick-off times are almost perfect for after work most matches between 5pm and 9pm BST.

England are in Group L with Croatia, Ghana and Panama. On paper the kindest group draw they've had in years. Bellingham. Saka. Rice. Foden. This is arguably the most talented England squad in decades. Sixty years of hurt. Maybe just maybe this is the year.

Quick markets update because the timing this week is interesting.

Markets closed in red on Friday

The Iran conflict continues to weigh on sentiment globally.
The one number to watch this week: US inflation data on Wednesday.
Currently at 2.9% above the Fed's 2% target. If it comes in higher than expected, expect markets to fall further. If lower a bounce back. That's the number that sets the tone for the rest of June.

One more thing before you go.

We built a free World Cup app for the tournament and it launches Thursday.

GoalIQ gives you:

Just open goaliq.uk on your phone, add it to your home screen, and you're ready for Thursday.

I'll leave you with this.

On Thursday evening, for 90 minutes, none of the economics or politics or controversy will matter.

It'll just be football. And that's enough.

See you Thursday,
Money Simplified 💰

P.S. Who are you backing to win it? Hit reply I read every response.